A hypothetical 2028 national tandem featuring Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo has taken a narrow lead against the pairing of Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte and Senator Robin Padilla, according to the latest OCTA Research survey.
Released on Tuesday, the third-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey showed the Robredo-Tulfo ticket capturing 43 percent of national voter preference, edging out the Duterte-Padilla grouping, which secured 39 percent.
Meanwhile, 18 percent of the respondents remained uncommitted, stating they would choose neither or remaining undecided.
The face-to-face poll, which utilized 1,200 adult respondents, carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Despite the four-point national lead, the figures expose a sharp regional and ethnolinguistic split across the country.
The Robredo-Tulfo coalition heavily dominates Luzon, scoring 61 percent in Balance Luzon and 49 percent in Metro Manila, alongside strong support among Tagalog and Ilocano speakers.
Conversely, the Duterte-Padilla tandem maintains a formidable stronghold in Mindanao, sweeping 81 percent of the regional vote and dominating among Cebuano-Bisaya speakers.
The Visayas region remains a virtual dead heat, with Duterte and Padilla drawing 43 percent against Robredo and Tulfo’s 41 percent.
Demographically, the two pairs draw power from distinct segments of the electorate.
Robredo and Tulfo lead among women, urban dwellers, older voters aged 45 and above, and upper-to-middle classes ABC as well as Class E.
On the other side, Duterte and Padilla pull stronger numbers among male respondents, rural residents, and voters aged 25 to 44.
OCTA emphasized that the survey serves purely as an early baseline snapshot rather than a concrete election forecast.
The polling period—conducted from September 28 to October 4—coincided with the Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, during which Mayor Baste Duterte testified.
Furthermore, the findings preceded Robredo’s November announcement confirming she will not seek the presidency in 2028 and intends to pursue local reelection.
OCTA noted that fluid political alliances, shifting candidacies, and ongoing legal and legislative developments will continue to heavily influence voter alignments moving forward.